NHS Productivity & Finance

Trust-level productivity growth estimates and in-year financial positions

About this measure: This is the new NHS England trust-level productivity growth estimate, first published 12 February 2026. It compares cost-weighted activity growth (outputs) with real-terms resource growth (inputs). The Spending Review 2025 sets a target of 2% year-on-year productivity growth, with the aim of returning to pre-pandemic productivity levels by the end of the parliament. Figures are year-to-date (YTD), comparing April–October 2025 with the same period in 2024/25. This is experimental management information — see the full methodology.
Interpretation note: These estimates are provisional and subject to revision as trusts restate activity data. Sheffield's early-month figures show high volatility likely reflecting data restatement effects. The October YTD figure (the most complete) is the most reliable for each trust.

Headline Productivity – October 2025 YTD

Source: NHS England Productivity Growth Estimate, April–October 2025 (published 12 February 2026)

Shelford Group Average
+4.5%
Productivity growth, Apr–Oct 2025 YTD
England Average
+3.5%
All NHS providers, same period
Spending Review Target
2.0%
Year-on-year target from SR25
Acute & Specialist (National)
+2.8%
Provider type benchmark

Trust-Level Productivity Growth

Source: NHS England Productivity Growth Estimate, October 2025 YTD (published 12 February 2026). All figures are provisional.

TrustProductivity GrowthOutput Growth (CWA)Input Growth (Resource)

Productivity Growth by Trust – October 2025 YTD

Source: NHS England Productivity Growth Estimate. Dashed line = 2% Spending Review target. England average = 3.5%.

Output Growth vs Input Growth – October 2025 YTD

Source: NHS England Productivity Growth Estimate. Productivity is positive when the teal bar (output) exceeds the grey bar (input). All Shelford trusts show output exceeding input.

Productivity Growth Trends – April to October 2025 (YTD)

Source: NHS England Productivity Growth Estimate. Each point shows the cumulative YTD figure as at that month. Lines converge as YTD periods lengthen.

Financial Position – 2025/26

Source: Shelford Group CFO Monthly Updates, M9 YTD (December 2025). Figures are provider surplus/(deficit) in £000s. Manchester data incomplete and excluded from some charts.

M9 YTD Surplus / (Deficit) – Actual vs Plan

Source: Shelford CFO Monthly Updates, December 2025. All figures £000s.

YTD Financial Position Trajectory

Source: Shelford CFO Monthly Updates. Each point shows cumulative YTD surplus/(deficit) in £000s. Months with missing data are omitted per trust.

CIP Delivery – M9 YTD Plan vs Actual

Source: Shelford CFO Monthly Updates, December 2025. CIP = Cost Improvement Programme. £000s.

Financial Summary

Trust24/25 Outturn25/26 FY PlanM9 YTD PlanM9 YTD ActualVarianceCIP Target %CIP PlanCIP ActualCIP Var